Field-of-64 – Carl’s Final Computer-based Prediction

by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 26

Hoosiers are 2-seed in Louisville in this model, however…

According to the computer assignment Indiana will be a 2-seed in the Louisville Regional. I don’t think that will work. Indiana State is in the same area, also a 2-seed, and is a mid major. I think the NCAA would rather force the Power-5 team to travel. A straight swap would send Indiana to Starkville, Mississippi.

Conference Adjustment simplified

I greatly simplified the conference regular season champion adjustment. I gave a small boost to all conference champions and an extra large boost to top-10 RPI conference champions with individual RPIs outside of the hosting range. This boost helps teams like Texas in 2018 get a shot to host with a 20-range RPI if they win a major conference regular season title. 

Stolen Bids

It was an average year for stolen bids.

STOLEN BIDS(3):
1. Big Ten (Ohio State)
2. Conference USA (Southern Miss - but they are really close to at-large range) 
3. American Athletic (Cincy)

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, and American: 1

Lasts in/firsts out:

Some big names are the last teams in. Should the stolen bids not happen, they may all get in.

Last Four in:
1. DUKE
2. HOUSTON
3. MICHIGAN
4. CLEMSON


First Four out:
1. FLORIDA STATE
2. ARIZONA
3. FLORIDA
4. UC IRVINE

Field of 64:

Region: 1
Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC
3-seed: BYU of the West Coast
4-seed: JACKSONVILLE STATE of the Ohio Valley



==============================
Region: 16
Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12
4-seed: CINCINNATI of the American Athletic



==============================
Region: 8
Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC
4-seed: FORDHAM of the Atlantic 10



==============================
Region: 9
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT of the West Coast
4-seed: SACRAMENTO STATE of the Western Athletic



==============================
Region: 4
Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC
2-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA
4-seed: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT of the Northeast



==============================
Region: 13
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League



==============================
Region: 5
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
3-seed: DUKE of the ACC
4-seed: QUINNIPIAC of the MAAC



==============================
Region: 12
Host: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South
4-seed: UNCW of the Colonial Athletic



==============================
Region: 3
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA
4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC



==============================
Region: 14
Host: LSU of the SEC
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: MCNEESE STATE of the Southland
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC



==============================
Region: 6
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic
4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League



==============================
Region: 11
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East



==============================
Region: 7
Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC
2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
3-seed: COASTAL CAROLINA of the Sun Belt
4-seed: MERCER of the Southern



==============================
Region: 10
Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC
2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
3-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American
4-seed: UIC of the Horizon League



==============================
Region: 2
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: OMAHA of the The Summit League



==============================
Region: 15
Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN
4-seed: OHIO STATE of the Big Ten

1-64 ranks:

1. VANDERBILT
2. UCLA
3. GEORGIA
4. MISSISSIPPI STATE
5. EAST CAROLINA
6. ARKANSAS
7. GEORGIA TECH
8. OKLAHOMA STATE
9. STANFORD
10. LOUISVILLE
11. TEXAS TECH
12. NORTH CAROLINA
13. OREGON STATE
14. LSU
15. WEST VIRGINIA
16. TEXAS A&M
==================
17. MIAMI (FL)
18. DALLAS BAPTIST
19. OLE MISS
20. UC SANTA BARBARA
21. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
22. CREIGHTON
23. ILLINOIS STATE
24. TENNESSEE
25. CALIFORNIA
26. FRESNO STATE
27. ARIZONA STATE
28. ILLINOIS
29. INDIANA STATE
30. AUBURN
31. INDIANA
32. CONNECTICUT
===================
33. BAYLOR
34. BYU
35. NEBRASKA
36. FAU
37. TEXAS STATE
38. CLEMSON
39. MICHIGAN
40. HOUSTON
41. LIBERTY
42. DUKE <-- LAST IN
43. SOUTHERN MISS
44. CAMPBELL
45. COASTAL CAROLINA
46. LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT
47. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
48. MCNEESE STATE
======================
49. JACKSONVILLE STATE
50. CINCINNATI
51. HARVARD
52. SACRAMENTO STATE
53. OHIO STATE
54. MERCER
55. STONY BROOK
56. FORDHAM
57. UNCW
58. ARMY
59. QUINNIPIAC
60. UIC
61. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
62. OMAHA
63. SOUTHERN
64. FLORIDA A&M
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