by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 26
Hoosiers are 2-seed in Louisville in this model, however…
According to the computer assignment Indiana will be a 2-seed in the Louisville Regional. I don’t think that will work. Indiana State is in the same area, also a 2-seed, and is a mid major. I think the NCAA would rather force the Power-5 team to travel. A straight swap would send Indiana to Starkville, Mississippi.
Conference Adjustment simplified
I greatly simplified the conference regular season champion adjustment. I gave a small boost to all conference champions and an extra large boost to top-10 RPI conference champions with individual RPIs outside of the hosting range. This boost helps teams like Texas in 2018 get a shot to host with a 20-range RPI if they win a major conference regular season title.
It was an average year for stolen bids.
STOLEN BIDS(3): 1. Big Ten (Ohio State) 2. Conference USA (Southern Miss - but they are really close to at-large range) 3. American Athletic (Cincy)
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, and American: 1
Lasts in/firsts out:
Some big names are the last teams in. Should the stolen bids not happen, they may all get in.
Last Four in: 1. DUKE 2. HOUSTON 3. MICHIGAN 4. CLEMSON First Four out: 1. FLORIDA STATE 2. ARIZONA 3. FLORIDA 4. UC IRVINE
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: BYU of the West Coast 4-seed: JACKSONVILLE STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 16 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 4-seed: CINCINNATI of the American Athletic ============================== Region: 8 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: FORDHAM of the Atlantic 10 ============================== Region: 9 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT of the West Coast 4-seed: SACRAMENTO STATE of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 4 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA 4-seed: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 13 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 5 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: QUINNIPIAC of the MAAC ============================== Region: 12 Host: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South 4-seed: UNCW of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 3 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC ============================== Region: 14 Host: LSU of the SEC 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: MCNEESE STATE of the Southland 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 6 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 11 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 7 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 3-seed: COASTAL CAROLINA of the Sun Belt 4-seed: MERCER of the Southern ============================== Region: 10 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American 4-seed: UIC of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: OMAHA of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 15 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN 4-seed: OHIO STATE of the Big Ten
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA 3. GEORGIA 4. MISSISSIPPI STATE 5. EAST CAROLINA 6. ARKANSAS 7. GEORGIA TECH 8. OKLAHOMA STATE 9. STANFORD 10. LOUISVILLE 11. TEXAS TECH 12. NORTH CAROLINA 13. OREGON STATE 14. LSU 15. WEST VIRGINIA 16. TEXAS A&M ================== 17. MIAMI (FL) 18. DALLAS BAPTIST 19. OLE MISS 20. UC SANTA BARBARA 21. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 22. CREIGHTON 23. ILLINOIS STATE 24. TENNESSEE 25. CALIFORNIA 26. FRESNO STATE 27. ARIZONA STATE 28. ILLINOIS 29. INDIANA STATE 30. AUBURN 31. INDIANA 32. CONNECTICUT =================== 33. BAYLOR 34. BYU 35. NEBRASKA 36. FAU 37. TEXAS STATE 38. CLEMSON 39. MICHIGAN 40. HOUSTON 41. LIBERTY 42. DUKE <-- LAST IN 43. SOUTHERN MISS 44. CAMPBELL 45. COASTAL CAROLINA 46. LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 47. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 48. MCNEESE STATE ====================== 49. JACKSONVILLE STATE 50. CINCINNATI 51. HARVARD 52. SACRAMENTO STATE 53. OHIO STATE 54. MERCER 55. STONY BROOK 56. FORDHAM 57. UNCW 58. ARMY 59. QUINNIPIAC 60. UIC 61. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT 62. OMAHA 63. SOUTHERN 64. FLORIDA A&M