by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 26
Hoosiers maintain 2-seed
Great day of wins from Indiana’s past opponents maintained strength of schedule. However two other Midwest teams are locks for 2-seeds so regional assignments are not clear. Multiple model runs throughout the day had the Hoosiers going to multiple locations but circling right back to Louisville in this version. However, I think the human touch of the NCAA Committee would switch Indiana State and Indiana, placing the Hoosiers in Starkville. Yes. The one in Mississippi. Wouldn’t that be a story?
Western Adjustment re-tooled
I re-wrote the western adjustment to be responsive to each western team’s RPI numbers and not just be a blanket increase in rank. This seems to produce results more in-line with expectations.
Many more clinched. It is possible that teams I have listed as 4-seeds have been eliminated since no clinch auto bids are assumed to be the top RPI team in the league until clinched and I haven’t gone conference by conference.
Bubble teams rejoice. Stolen bid potential is way down now and no bids have been stolen yet.
Steal Potential by Conference:
POTENTIAL STEALS REMAINING: 1. Big Ten (champ game will be at-large/stealer) 2. Conference USA (FAU cruising so far, but a champ game loss = steal) 3. American Athletic (Cincy a threat to steal vs at-large UCONN) 4. Big 12 (TCU last stealer left in loser's bracket)
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, and American: 1
Lasts in/firsts out:
Some big names are the last teams in. Should the stolen bids not happen, they may all get in.
Last Four in: 1. FLORIDA 2. ARIZONA 3. FLORIDA STATE 4. DUKE First Four out: 1. UC IRVINE 2. SOUTHERN MISS 3. VCU 4. MINNESOTA
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: JACKSONVILLE STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 16 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 8 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 9 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 4 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: MCNEESE STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 13 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 5 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: WILLIAM & MARY of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 12 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 3-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American 4-seed: FORDHAM of the Atlantic 10 ============================== Region: 3 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC ============================== Region: 14 Host: LSU of the SEC 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: ARIZONA of the Pac-12 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 6 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: UIC of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 11 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 7 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: OMAHA of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 10 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT of the West Coast ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 3-seed: BYU of the West Coast 4-seed: GRAND CANYON of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 15 Host: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA 3. GEORGIA 4. MISSISSIPPI STATE 5. EAST CAROLINA 6. LOUISVILLE 7. TEXAS TECH 8. ARKANSAS 9. GEORGIA TECH 10. STANFORD 11. OKLAHOMA STATE 12. OREGON STATE 13. WEST VIRGINIA 14. LSU 15. NORTH CAROLINA 16. TEXAS A&M =================== 17. MIAMI (FL) 18. OLE MISS 19. DALLAS BAPTIST 20. UC SANTA BARBARA 21. CREIGHTON 22. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 23. ILLINOIS STATE 24. TENNESSEE 25. CALIFORNIA 26. ARIZONA STATE 27. ILLINOIS 28. CONNECTICUT 29. INDIANA STATE 30. FRESNO STATE 31. AUBURN 32. INDIANA ==================== 33. BAYLOR 34. NEBRASKA 35. FAU 36. BYU 37. CLEMSON 38. MICHIGAN 39. TEXAS STATE 40. HOUSTON 41. MISSOURI 42. DUKE 43. LIBERTY 44. FLORIDA STATE 45. ARIZONA 46. CAMPBELL 47. FLORIDA 48. CENTRAL MICHIGAN ======================= 49. LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 50. SAMFORD 51. MCNEESE STATE 52. JACKSONVILLE STATE 53. WILLIAM & MARY 54. BRYANT 55. HARVARD 56. GRAND CANYON 57. STONY BROOK 58. FORDHAM 59. ARMY 60. MARIST 61. UIC 62. OMAHA 63. SOUTHERN 64. FLORIDA A&M