by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 25
Hoosiers drop to last 2-seed
Despite not playing, Indiana’s RPI drops to #36. RPIs in the range 33-45 are generally considered 3-seed territory, but the B1G regular season title will likely give Indiana the bump they need to claim a 2-seed but it’s really close now due to how well other teams in this range are playing.
Furthermore, most of the teams around Indiana are still playing today so this could move again. Indiana State is one slot below the Hoosiers and if they win the MVC Tourney they will pass the Hoosiers and possibly take away the #2 slot in Louisville.
I used to be a huge proponent of the B1G regular season title guaranteeing the Hoosiers a 2-seed. I’m backing off of that because 2-seed/3-seed is not a huge deal and none of this happens in a vacuum. Teams are playing their way into those 2-seeds and it may be hard to deny them.
Arkansas replaces Stanford as a top-8
I pulled back a bit on my western adjustment and it is bringing my model much more in line with the national media. Arkansas still not nearly as safe for a top-8 as everyone else has them but Stanford drops from safe to #12.
No changes. It is possible that teams I have listed as 4-seeds have been eliminated since no clinch auto bids are assumed to be the top RPI team in the league until clinched and I haven’t gone conference by conference.
This is the big story now. Four bids have at least a 50-50 shot of being stolen. Another four require one team to go a tear to steal a bid. The Big Ten is not as bad now with Nebraska sitting pretty. If Michigan beats Nebraska twice the Wolverines are a clear at-large so at least one at-large will be in the Big Ten Tourney Champ game. While not clinched for a specific team, the Missouri Valley and SEC only have at-large teams remaining and will not be stolen.
Steal Potential by Conference:
HIGH POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big Ten (champ game will be at-large/stealer) 2. Conference USA (FAU cruising so far, but a champ game loss = steal) 3. American Athletic (Cincy a threat to steal with E Carolina out already) 4. Big West - no tourney - Cal Poly a game away from sweep to steal bid from UC SANTA BARBARA MEDIUM POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big 12 (TCU last stealer left in loser's bracket) 2. Mountain West (Fresno State needs to lose twice to be stolen) 3. Big East (Creighton needs to lose twice to be stolen) 4. ACC - (Boston College 2 wins away from a steal) IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Missouri Valley - at larges only remaining 2. SEC - all remaining are at-large
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2, Missouri Valley (+1) and American: 1 each, Big West: 0 (-1)
Lasts in/firsts out:
Minnesota is looking good here due to the strength of schedule. Should the Gophers beat Ohio State twice and lose to Michigan/Nebraska plus no stolen bids… this model could have the Gophers slide in.
Last Four in: 1. SOUTHERN MISS 2. FLORIDA 3. FLORIDA STATE 4. ARIZONA First Four out: 1. SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE 2. MINNESOTA 3. UC IRVINE 4. UCF
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 16 Host: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 8 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 9 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 3-seed: BYU of the West Coast 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 4 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA 4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 13 Host: LSU of the SEC 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: ARIZONA of the Pac-12 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 5 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 12 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American ============================== Region: 3 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC ============================== Region: 14 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN 4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 6 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: WILLIAM & MARY of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 11 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 7 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 10 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: GRAND CANYON of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 15 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA* 3. GEORGIA 4. MISSISSIPPI STATE 5. LOUISVILLE 6. EAST CAROLINA 7. TEXAS TECH 8. ARKANSAS 9. OREGON STATE 10. OKLAHOMA STATE 11. GEORGIA TECH 12. STANFORD 13. LSU 14. WEST VIRGINIA 15. TEXAS A&M 16. DALLAS BAPTIST ======================== 17. NORTH CAROLINA 18. MIAMI (FL) 19. UC SANTA BARBARA 20. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 21. CREIGHTON 22. OLE MISS 23. TENNESSEE 24. ILLINOIS STATE 25. CALIFORNIA 26. ILLINOIS 27. BAYLOR 28. FRESNO STATE 29. ARIZONA STATE 30. CONNECTICUT 31. AUBURN 32. INDIANA ========================= 33. INDIANA STATE 34. NEBRASKA 35. FAU 36. CLEMSON 37. BYU 38. MISSOURI 39. MICHIGAN 40. TEXAS STATE 41. HOUSTON 42. DUKE 43. ARIZONA 44. FLORIDA STATE 45. LIBERTY 46. FLORIDA 47. CAMPBELL 48. SOUTHERN MISS <-- LAST At-large IN ========================= 49. VCU 50. SAM HOUSTON STATE 51. WRIGHT STATE 52. SAMFORD 53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 54. WILLIAM & MARY 55. BRYANT 56. HARVARD* 57. MOREHEAD STATE 58. GRAND CANYON 59. STONY BROOK 60. ARMY* 61. MARIST 62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 63. SOUTHERN* 64. FLORIDA A&M*
*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:
MEAC: Florida A&M PATRIOT: Army IVY LEAGUE: Harvard SWAC: Southern PAC-12: UCLA