by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 25
Hoosiers drop to last 2-seed
Despite not playing, Indiana’s RPI drops to #36. RPIs in the range 33-45 are generally considered 3-seed territory, but the B1G regular season title will likely give Indiana the bump they need to claim a 2-seed but it’s really close now due to how well other teams in this range are playing.
Furthermore, most of the teams around Indiana are still playing today so this could move again. Indiana State is one slot below the Hoosiers and if they win the MVC Tourney they will pass the Hoosiers and possibly take away the #2 slot in Louisville.
I used to be a huge proponent of the B1G regular season title guaranteeing the Hoosiers a 2-seed. I’m backing off of that because 2-seed/3-seed is not a huge deal and none of this happens in a vacuum. Teams are playing their way into those 2-seeds and it may be hard to deny them.
Arkansas replaces Stanford as a top-8
I pulled back a bit on my western adjustment and it is bringing my model much more in line with the national media. Arkansas still not nearly as safe for a top-8 as everyone else has them but Stanford drops from safe to #12.
Automatic Bids
No changes. It is possible that teams I have listed as 4-seeds have been eliminated since no clinch auto bids are assumed to be the top RPI team in the league until clinched and I haven’t gone conference by conference.
Stolen Bids
This is the big story now. Four bids have at least a 50-50 shot of being stolen. Another four require one team to go a tear to steal a bid. The Big Ten is not as bad now with Nebraska sitting pretty. If Michigan beats Nebraska twice the Wolverines are a clear at-large so at least one at-large will be in the Big Ten Tourney Champ game. While not clinched for a specific team, the Missouri Valley and SEC only have at-large teams remaining and will not be stolen.
Steal Potential by Conference:
HIGH POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big Ten (champ game will be at-large/stealer) 2. Conference USA (FAU cruising so far, but a champ game loss = steal) 3. American Athletic (Cincy a threat to steal with E Carolina out already) 4. Big West - no tourney - Cal Poly a game away from sweep to steal bid from UC SANTA BARBARA MEDIUM POTENTIAL STEAL 1. Big 12 (TCU last stealer left in loser's bracket) 2. Mountain West (Fresno State needs to lose twice to be stolen) 3. Big East (Creighton needs to lose twice to be stolen) 4. ACC - (Boston College 2 wins away from a steal) IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Missouri Valley - at larges only remaining 2. SEC - all remaining are at-large
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2, Missouri Valley (+1) and American: 1 each, Big West: 0 (-1)
Lasts in/firsts out:
Minnesota is looking good here due to the strength of schedule. Should the Gophers beat Ohio State twice and lose to Michigan/Nebraska plus no stolen bids… this model could have the Gophers slide in.
Last Four in: 1. SOUTHERN MISS 2. FLORIDA 3. FLORIDA STATE 4. ARIZONA First Four out: 1. SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE 2. MINNESOTA 3. UC IRVINE 4. UCF
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 16 Host: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 8 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 9 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 3-seed: BYU of the West Coast 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 4 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA 4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 13 Host: LSU of the SEC 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: ARIZONA of the Pac-12 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 5 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 12 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American ============================== Region: 3 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC ============================== Region: 14 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN 4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 6 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: WILLIAM & MARY of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 11 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 7 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 10 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: GRAND CANYON of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 15 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10
1-64 ranks:
1. VANDERBILT
2. UCLA*
3. GEORGIA
4. MISSISSIPPI STATE
5. LOUISVILLE
6. EAST CAROLINA
7. TEXAS TECH
8. ARKANSAS
9. OREGON STATE
10. OKLAHOMA STATE
11. GEORGIA TECH
12. STANFORD
13. LSU
14. WEST VIRGINIA
15. TEXAS A&M
16. DALLAS BAPTIST
========================
17. NORTH CAROLINA
18. MIAMI (FL)
19. UC SANTA BARBARA
20. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
21. CREIGHTON
22. OLE MISS
23. TENNESSEE
24. ILLINOIS STATE
25. CALIFORNIA
26. ILLINOIS
27. BAYLOR
28. FRESNO STATE
29. ARIZONA STATE
30. CONNECTICUT
31. AUBURN
32. INDIANA
=========================
33. INDIANA STATE
34. NEBRASKA
35. FAU
36. CLEMSON
37. BYU
38. MISSOURI
39. MICHIGAN
40. TEXAS STATE
41. HOUSTON
42. DUKE
43. ARIZONA
44. FLORIDA STATE
45. LIBERTY
46. FLORIDA
47. CAMPBELL
48. SOUTHERN MISS <-- LAST At-large IN
=========================
49. VCU
50. SAM HOUSTON STATE
51. WRIGHT STATE
52. SAMFORD
53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
54. WILLIAM & MARY
55. BRYANT
56. HARVARD*
57. MOREHEAD STATE
58. GRAND CANYON
59. STONY BROOK
60. ARMY*
61. MARIST
62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
63. SOUTHERN*
64. FLORIDA A&M*
*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:
MEAC: Florida A&M PATRIOT: Army IVY LEAGUE: Harvard SWAC: Southern PAC-12: UCLA