Field-of-64 – Carl’s Final Computer-based Prediction

by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 26

Hoosiers are 2-seed in Louisville in this model, however…

According to the computer assignment Indiana will be a 2-seed in the Louisville Regional. I don’t think that will work. Indiana State is in the same area, also a 2-seed, and is a mid major. I think the NCAA would rather force the Power-5 team to travel. A straight swap would send Indiana to Starkville, Mississippi.

Conference Adjustment simplified

I greatly simplified the conference regular season champion adjustment. I gave a small boost to all conference champions and an extra large boost to top-10 RPI conference champions with individual RPIs outside of the hosting range. This boost helps teams like Texas in 2018 get a shot to host with a 20-range RPI if they win a major conference regular season title. 

Stolen Bids

It was an average year for stolen bids.

STOLEN BIDS(3):
1. Big Ten (Ohio State)
2. Conference USA (Southern Miss - but they are really close to at-large range) 
3. American Athletic (Cincy)

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, and American: 1

Lasts in/firsts out:

Some big names are the last teams in. Should the stolen bids not happen, they may all get in.

Last Four in:
1. DUKE
2. HOUSTON
3. MICHIGAN
4. CLEMSON


First Four out:
1. FLORIDA STATE
2. ARIZONA
3. FLORIDA
4. UC IRVINE

Field of 64:

Region: 1
Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC
3-seed: BYU of the West Coast
4-seed: JACKSONVILLE STATE of the Ohio Valley



==============================
Region: 16
Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12
4-seed: CINCINNATI of the American Athletic



==============================
Region: 8
Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC
4-seed: FORDHAM of the Atlantic 10



==============================
Region: 9
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT of the West Coast
4-seed: SACRAMENTO STATE of the Western Athletic



==============================
Region: 4
Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC
2-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA
4-seed: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT of the Northeast



==============================
Region: 13
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League



==============================
Region: 5
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
3-seed: DUKE of the ACC
4-seed: QUINNIPIAC of the MAAC



==============================
Region: 12
Host: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South
4-seed: UNCW of the Colonial Athletic



==============================
Region: 3
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA
4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC



==============================
Region: 14
Host: LSU of the SEC
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: MCNEESE STATE of the Southland
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC



==============================
Region: 6
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic
4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League



==============================
Region: 11
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East



==============================
Region: 7
Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC
2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
3-seed: COASTAL CAROLINA of the Sun Belt
4-seed: MERCER of the Southern



==============================
Region: 10
Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC
2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
3-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American
4-seed: UIC of the Horizon League



==============================
Region: 2
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: OMAHA of the The Summit League



==============================
Region: 15
Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN
4-seed: OHIO STATE of the Big Ten