by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 19
B1G Champion Hoosiers improve to solid 2-seed territory at #24 nationally
The Hoosiers are right in the middle of the 2-seed group. I don’t see how the B1G Tourney could move the Hoosiers out of a 2-seed in either direction. Regionally speaking, this has the Hoosiers back in Louisville. Illinois and Illinois State are currently the other two nearby 2-seeds who are traveling down south in this model. Indiana State is with the Hoosiers in Louisville as a 3-seed. The MVC tournament will be one to watch. The MVC Tourney could change things for Illinois State and Indiana State. If the Hoosiers want to stay close to home, they will root for those two teams to go 0-2 in the MVC Tournament.
Changes to the Model
I do make changes to the model as I see it work over time. Today’s model pulls out an adjustment I made for percent of top-50 and top-100 games played, and makes it based on quantity of wins against those tiers. As a result I also greatly reduced my northern adjustment which was created to offset the original adjustment. This seems to be more in-line with national pundit sentiment. However, there are at least two places where this model greatly diverges. I have Arkansas as the #9 national seed while other see them as the #3. I also have Louisville higher than the national sentiment largely on them having the best record in the ACC. I have had some good suggestions on altering the model further, but this requires adding new data which is a lot of work that I don’t have time for at present. If I see this being off from the NCAA Committee on Selection Monday, I will make these adjustments in the off-season for 2020.
Up until today automatic bids were assigned to the best RPI team in each conference. Now the first automatic bid has been earned going to Florida A&M in the MEAC. As these are clinched, they will replace the top RPI team in the model. Keep in mind that while conference tourneys are in progress, you may see teams that are already eliminated show up here, because I do not apply the auto-bid until a winner is decided.
Right now the last at-large slot is at #48. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with three stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.
Steal Potential by Conference:
HIGH POTENTIAL STEALS (no particular order - just counting) 1. Big Ten 2. Big 12 3. Atlantic 10 4. Mountain West 5. American Athletic 6. Big East 7. Missouri Valley 8. Conference USA LOW POTENTIAL STEALS 1. SEC - most are at-large 2. Big West - no tourney - leader is an at-large 3. ACC - most are at-large IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Pac-12 - no tourney - all who could win are clear at-large teams
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 5, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, Big West and American: 1 each
Lasts in/firsts out:
Last Four in: 1. LOUISIANA TECH 2. UC IRVINE 3. FLORIDA STATE 4. MICHIGAN First Four out: 1. PEPPERDINE 2. SAN DIEGO STATE 3. SOUTHERN MISS 4. VIRGINIA
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 16 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10 4-seed: NAVY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 8 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 9 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 4 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: CHARLESTON of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 13 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 5 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 12 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American ============================== Region: 3 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 14 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 6 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South ============================== Region: 11 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: LIBERTY of the Atlantic Sun 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 7 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 10 Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: BYU of the West Coast 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 15 Host: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 2-seed: LSU of the SEC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA 3. LOUISVILLE 4. GEORGIA 5. MISSISSIPPI STATE 6. EAST CAROLINA 7. TEXAS TECH 8. STANFORD 9. ARKANSAS 10. UC SANTA BARBARA 11. OREGON STATE 12. GEORGIA TECH 13. OKLAHOMA STATE 14. TEXAS A&M 15. MIAMI (FL) 16. WEST VIRGINIA =================== 17. TENNESSEE 18. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19. LSU 20. DALLAS BAPTIST 21. CREIGHTON 22. ILLINOIS 23. NORTH CAROLINA 24. INDIANA 25. ARIZONA STATE 26. ILLINOIS STATE 27. FRESNO STATE 28. OLE MISS 29. BAYLOR 30. CALIFORNIA 31. CONNECTICUT 32. BYU ================== 33. AUBURN 34. INDIANA STATE 35. NEBRASKA 36. FAU 37. MISSOURI 38. TEXAS STATE 39. HOUSTON 40. CLEMSON 41. DUKE 42. VCU 43. FLORIDA 44. MICHIGAN 45. FLORIDA STATE 46. UC IRVINE 47. LIBERTY 48. LOUISIANA TECH - LAST IN ===================== 49. SAM HOUSTON STATE 50. CAMPBELL 51. WRIGHT STATE 52. SAMFORD 53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 54. CHARLESTON 55. HARVARD 56. BRYANT 57. UTRGV 58. MOREHEAD STATE 59. NAVY 60. STONY BROOK 61. MARIST 62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 63. SOUTHERN 64. FLORIDA A&M*
*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:
MEAC: Florida A&M