What if the season ended today?

by Carl James • @jovian34 • Mar 21

A new real-time algorithm to auto-generate an NCAA field-of-64 is something I see eventual value in as the baseball season goes deep into the spring. Right now its not much more than a comic exercise, but it is kind of a dream for northern schools who have played tougher schedules up to the point.

So this algorithm was built in December trying to closely match the NCAA committee and their thinking in the 2018 season. I tweaked various “adjusters” that applied to top-50 wins and percents, punished teams with sub .500 conference records (like Kentucky), and gave a secret boost to western teams based on metrics the NCAA committee will say they don’t look at, but somehow the results bear it out.

The part I’m most proud of is that it places teams somewhat regionally based on home state, then tries to balance the rest by strength. My algorithm would not have sent a very good #4 seed in Wright State to #2 overall seed Stanford in 2018 for example. Other than that, I tried to match the thinking of the NCAA committee.

Now, in mid-March posting this would be reckless and silly. But it’s too wildly entertaining NOT to do it. And if we can’t go to the Bart for regionals…. why not Terre Haute?

***This is NOT a prediction! This is applying a season-end algorithm to about 5 weeks of play.***

Region: 1

Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12

2-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West

3-seed: SAN DIEGO of the West Coast

4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League

Region: 16

Host: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley

2-seed: VANDERBILT of the SEC

3-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten

4-seed: TOLEDO of the Mid-American


Region: 8


2-seed: XAVIER of the Big East

3-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast

4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley

Region: 9

Host: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten

2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley

3-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC

4-seed: WESTERN ILLINOIS of the The Summit League


Region: 4

Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC

2-seed: WASHINGTON of the Pac-12

3-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland

4-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA

Region: 13

Host: TENNESSEE of the SEC


3-seed: UNCG of the Southern

4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South


Region: 5

Host: UCLA of the Pac-12

2-seed: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12


4-seed: BINGHAMTON of the America East

Region: 12

Host: TEXAS of the Big 12

2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic

3-seed: TEXAS A&M of the SEC

4-seed: TEXAS SOUTHERN of the SWAC


Region: 3

Host: AUBURN of the SEC

2-seed: SAINT JOHN’S of the Big East

3-seed: GEORGIA SOUTHERN of the Sun Belt

4-seed: QUINNIPIAC of the MAAC

Region: 14

Host: OREGON of the Pac-12

2-seed: GEORGIA of the SEC

3-seed: GONZAGA of the West Coast

4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League


Region: 6
Host: COASTAL CAROLINA of the Sun Belt

2-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC

3-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC

4-seed: NORTH CAROLINA A&T of the MEAC

Region: 11

Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12

2-seed: LSU of the SEC

3-seed: PENN STATE of the Big Ten

4-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10


Region: 7

Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West

2-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten

3-seed: WILLIAM & MARY of the Colonial Athletic

4-seed: AIR FORCE of the Mountain West

Region: 10

Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12

2-seed: PEPPERDINE of the West Coast

3-seed: LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT of the West Coast

4-seed: PENN of the Ivy League


Region: 2

Host: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12

2-seed: VIRGINIA TECH of the ACC

3-seed: SAINT MARY’S COLLEGE of the West Coast

4-seed: GRAND CANYON of the Western Athletic

Region: 15

Host: UCF of the American Athletic

2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC

3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC

4-seed: JACKSONVILLE of the Atlantic Sun


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