Field-of-64 If it Ended Today – April 29th

by Carl James • @jovian34 • April 29

All adjustments in the model now set to end-of season as May is almost here.

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

Up until now I had moderated the adjustments I made for performance against the RPI top-50 and the RPI top-100 plus adjustments based on conference performance. Now that the season is in its last month I have set those adjustments to end of season levels. That caused some dramatic changes, most notably dropping the SEC from 8 hosts to 4 hosts. This model punishes teams not at least 0.500 in conference play and the SEC has been brutal this season so far. However, this still has 11 SEC teams making the field overall.

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 4, Pac-12: 4, ACC: 3, Big 12: 2, Big West, West Coast and American: 1 each

The Indiana Hoosiers are the #3 seed in the Louisville Regional in this model.

Region: 1
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
3-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South
4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern

Region: 16
Host: BAYLOR of the Big 12
2-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
3-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic

Region: 8
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: GONZAGA of the West Coast
4-seed: BALL STATE of the Mid-American

Region: 9
2-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: SOUTHERN MISS of the Conference USA
4-seed: LIBERTY of the Atlantic Sun

Region: 4
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: OKLAHOMA of the Big 12
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC

Region: 13
Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
4-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10

Region: 5
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
4-seed: NORTH CAROLINA A&T of the MEAC

Region: 12
Host: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
3-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League
4-seed: ELON of the Colonial Athletic

Region: 3
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West
3-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast
4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC

Region: 14
Host: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
2-seed: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC
4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland

Region: 6
2-seed: XAVIER of the Big East
3-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley

Region: 11
Host: BYU of the West Coast
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East

Region: 7
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
4-seed: NAVY of the Patriot League

Region: 10
2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League

Region: 2
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League

Region: 15
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: LSU of the SEC
3-seed: EVANSVILLE of the Missouri Valley
4-seed: DUKE of the ACC

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