Field-of-64 If it Ended Today – May 24th

by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 24

Hoosiers still (barely) a 2-seed after early bounce from B1G Tourney

As expected, Indiana’s RPI drops to #34 after the Hoosiers are eliminated from the 2019 B1G Tournament. RPIs in the range 33-45 are generally considered 3-seed territory, but the B1G regular season title will likely give Indiana the bump they need to claim a 2-seed. The NCAA baseball committee values regular season conference champions, or at least has in the past and we expect this to be no different.

Arkansas not a top-8 seed?

One big area my field diverges from most of the national websites is in the failure to grant Arkansas a top-8 national seed. The Razorbacks get the #9 seed and may have to travel for a Super Regional. Now I have made changes to the model, but I make the changes across the board. If I change an adjustment, that applies to all teams. As I make those adjustments, Arkansas does not move up in the rankings. 

The Razorbacks are #6 in the RPI and this model is highly RPI based. How did they end up 3 seeds lower? 

• Arkansas’s metrics in top-50 wins are not obviously better than four of the teams ahead of them (Vanderbilt, UCLA, Georgia, Mississippi State).
• East Carolina, while lighter on the top-50 metrics (but still good), won the #5 league by a dominant 7 games. These issues wash in my model and keep the Pirates at a number 5-seed.
• Stanford (RPI 13, seeded #6) Recent NCAA Tournament seeding has seen huge bumps in western teams in recent years over their RPIs. I had to account for that in some way. I found a way that worked for 2018 that uses a metric I know the committee would deny using. I’m sticking to it… but I could be wrong and this will be a great test for the model.
• Louisville (RPI 9, seeded #7) The Cardinals won the #3 RPI league (the ACC) by two games. There is a boost for that as I mentioned in regards to Indiana and the 17-11 top-50 record is very good.
• Texas Tech (RPI 10, seeded #8) The Red Raiders won the #2 RPI league (the Big 12) by a game and their top-50 metrics are solid.

So the conference and western adjustments are hurting Arkansas in this model. I have no good way to quantify the regional advisory committee reports (“the eye test”) so I may be missing that as well.

Automatic Bids

UCLA clinches the Pac-12, but that clearly does not change this model.

Stolen Bids

Right now the last at-large slot is at #47. With a borderline auto/at-large at #46. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with one or two stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.

Steal Potential by Conference:

HIGH POTENTIAL STEAL
1. Big Ten (Nebraska only clear at-large left)

MEDIUM POTENTIAL STEAL
1. Conference USA (FAU cruising so far)
2. Big 12 (West Virginia cruising)
3. Mountain West (Fresno State off to good start)
4. American Athletic (UCONN in good shape)
5. Big West - no tourney - leader UC SANTA BARBARA has a magic number of 1 with 2 games to go 
6. Big East (Creighton off to good start)

LOW POTENTIAL STEALS
1. SEC - most are at-large
2. ACC - most are at-large
3. Missouri Valley - at larges dominating the tourney

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 6, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2, Big West and American: 1 each

Lasts in/firsts out:

Last Four in:
1. SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE
2. FLORIDA
3. FLORIDA STATE
4. UC IRVINE


First Four out:
1. SOUTHERN MISS
2. MINNESOTA
3. LOUISIANA TECH
4. ARIZONA

Field of 64:

Region: 1
Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
3-seed: BYU of the West Coast
4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern



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Region: 16
Host: LSU of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC
3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC



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Region: 8
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: NEW MEXICO STATE of the Western Athletic



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Region: 9
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East



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Region: 4
Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC
2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC
4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League



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Region: 13
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC
4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League



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Region: 5
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
3-seed: DUKE of the ACC
4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South



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Region: 12
Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC
4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American



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Region: 3
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA
4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC



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Region: 14
Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN
4-seed: WILLIAM & MARY of the Colonial Athletic



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Region: 6
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West
4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC



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Region: 11
Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC
4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast



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Region: 7
Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC
2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley



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Region: 10
Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE of the West Coast
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League



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Region: 2
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League



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Region: 15
Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12
3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland

MEAC: Florida A&M
PATRIOT: Army
IVY LEAGUE: Harvard
SWAC: Southern
PAC-12: UCLA