by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 20
Only Minor Changes from Sunday Action
The Hoosiers are idle until the B1G Tournament starts on Wednesday, but serveral automatic bids were earned and some west coast teams were in action. Stanford lost and drops to the overall #9 national seed advancing Arkansas to the #8.
Three more automatic bids were earned on Sunday. In the PATRIOT Army pulls off the upset over Navy denying a great chance for Noah Song to knock off a host making many college baseball fans very sad. In the IVY LEAGUE Harvard wins as expected and in the SWAC, Southern takes the crown.
Right now the last at-large slot is at #48. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with three stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.
Steal Potential by Conference:
HIGH POTENTIAL STEALS (no particular order - just counting) 1. Big Ten 2. Big 12 3. Atlantic 10 4. Mountain West 5. American Athletic 6. Big East 7. Missouri Valley 8. Conference USA LOW POTENTIAL STEALS 1. SEC - most are at-large 2. Big West - no tourney - leader is an at-large 3. ACC - most are at-large IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Pac-12 - no tourney - all who could win are clear at-large teams
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 5, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, Big West and American: 1 each
Lasts in/firsts out:
Last Four in: 1. LOUISIANA TECH 2. UC IRVINE 3. MICHIGAN 4. FLORIDA STATE First Four out: 1. PEPPERDINE 2. SAN DIEGO STATE 3. SOUTHERN MISS 4. SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 16 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10 4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 8 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 9 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 4 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: CHARLESTON of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 13 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American ============================== Region: 5 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC ============================== Region: 12 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 3 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 14 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 6 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South ============================== Region: 11 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: LIBERTY of the Atlantic Sun 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 7 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 10 Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: BYU of the West Coast 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 15 Host: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 2-seed: LSU of the SEC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA 3. LOUISVILLE 4. GEORGIA 5. MISSISSIPPI STATE 6. EAST CAROLINA 7. TEXAS TECH 8. ARKANSAS 9. STANFORD 10. UC SANTA BARBARA 11. OREGON STATE 12. GEORGIA TECH 13. OKLAHOMA STATE 14. TEXAS A&M 15. MIAMI (FL) 16. WEST VIRGINIA ====================== 17. LSU 18. TENNESSEE 19. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20. DALLAS BAPTIST 21. CREIGHTON 22. ILLINOIS 23. NORTH CAROLINA 24. INDIANA 25. ILLINOIS STATE 26. OLE MISS 27. FRESNO STATE 28. ARIZONA STATE 29. CALIFORNIA 30. BAYLOR 31. CONNECTICUT 32. BYU ====================== 33. AUBURN 34. INDIANA STATE 35. NEBRASKA 36. FAU 37. MISSOURI 38. TEXAS STATE 39. HOUSTON 40. CLEMSON 41. DUKE 42. VCU 43. FLORIDA 44. FLORIDA STATE 45. MICHIGAN 46. LIBERTY 47. UC IRVINE 48. LOUISIANA TECH ======================== 49. SAM HOUSTON STATE 50. CAMPBELL 51. WRIGHT STATE 52. SAMFORD 53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 54. CHARLESTON 55. HARVARD* 56. BRYANT 57. MOREHEAD STATE 58. UTRGV 59. STONY BROOK 60. MARIST 61. ARMY* 62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 63. SOUTHERN* 64. FLORIDA A&M*
*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:
MEAC: Florida A&M PATRIOT: Army IVY LEAGUE: Harvard SWAC: Southern