Field-of-64 If it Ended Today – May 20th

by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 20

Only Minor Changes from Sunday Action

The Hoosiers are idle until the B1G Tournament starts on Wednesday, but serveral automatic bids were earned and some west coast teams were in action. Stanford lost and drops to the overall #9 national seed advancing Arkansas to the #8.

Automatic Bids

Three more automatic bids were earned on Sunday. In the PATRIOT Army pulls off the upset over Navy denying a great chance for Noah Song to knock off a host making many college baseball fans very sad. In the IVY LEAGUE Harvard wins as expected and in the SWAC, Southern takes the crown.

Stolen Bids

Right now the last at-large slot is at #48. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with three stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.

Steal Potential by Conference:

HIGH POTENTIAL STEALS (no particular order - just counting)
1. Big Ten
2. Big 12
3. Atlantic 10
4. Mountain West
5. American Athletic
6. Big East
7. Missouri Valley
8. Conference USA

LOW POTENTIAL STEALS
1. SEC - most are at-large
2. Big West - no tourney - leader is an at-large
3. ACC - most are at-large

IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL
1. Pac-12 - no tourney - all who could win are clear at-large teams

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

 

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 5, Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 3, Big West and American: 1 each

 

Lasts in/firsts out:

Last Four in:
1. LOUISIANA TECH
2. UC IRVINE
3. MICHIGAN
4. FLORIDA STATE


First Four out:
1. PEPPERDINE
2. SAN DIEGO STATE
3. SOUTHERN MISS
4. SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE

Field of 64:

Region: 1
Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern



==============================
Region: 16
Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC
3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10
4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League



==============================
Region: 8
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic
4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland



==============================
Region: 9
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West
4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC



==============================
Region: 4
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC
4-seed: CHARLESTON of the Colonial Athletic



==============================
Region: 13
Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC
4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American



==============================
Region: 5
Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC
2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
3-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC



==============================
Region: 12
Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League



==============================
Region: 3
Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC
2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley



==============================
Region: 14
Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12
3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic



==============================
Region: 6
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
3-seed: DUKE of the ACC
4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South



==============================
Region: 11
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: LIBERTY of the Atlantic Sun
4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast



==============================
Region: 7
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC
4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League



==============================
Region: 10
Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East



==============================
Region: 2
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: BYU of the West Coast
3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC
4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League



==============================
Region: 15
Host: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
2-seed: LSU of the SEC
3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA
4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC

1-64 ranks:

1. VANDERBILT
2. UCLA
3. LOUISVILLE
4. GEORGIA
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE
6. EAST CAROLINA
7. TEXAS TECH
8. ARKANSAS
9. STANFORD
10. UC SANTA BARBARA
11. OREGON STATE
12. GEORGIA TECH
13. OKLAHOMA STATE
14. TEXAS A&M
15. MIAMI (FL)
16. WEST VIRGINIA
======================
17. LSU
18. TENNESSEE
19. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
20. DALLAS BAPTIST
21. CREIGHTON
22. ILLINOIS
23. NORTH CAROLINA
24. INDIANA
25. ILLINOIS STATE
26. OLE MISS
27. FRESNO STATE
28. ARIZONA STATE
29. CALIFORNIA
30. BAYLOR
31. CONNECTICUT
32. BYU
======================
33. AUBURN
34. INDIANA STATE
35. NEBRASKA
36. FAU
37. MISSOURI
38. TEXAS STATE
39. HOUSTON
40. CLEMSON
41. DUKE
42. VCU
43. FLORIDA
44. FLORIDA STATE
45. MICHIGAN
46. LIBERTY
47. UC IRVINE
48. LOUISIANA TECH
========================
49. SAM HOUSTON STATE
50. CAMPBELL
51. WRIGHT STATE
52. SAMFORD
53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
54. CHARLESTON
55. HARVARD*
56. BRYANT
57. MOREHEAD STATE
58. UTRGV
59. STONY BROOK
60. MARIST
61. ARMY*
62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
63. SOUTHERN*
64. FLORIDA A&M*

*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:

MEAC: Florida A&M
PATRIOT: Army
IVY LEAGUE: Harvard
SWAC: Southern
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