Indiana not mathematically out of at-large contention, but the window is very narrow
By Carl James @jovian34 April 26th, 2025 (before Saturday game with Iowa)
Resume:
- Quad-1: 1-6
- Quad-2: 4-7
- Combined 1&2: 5-13
- RPI: 80th
- Best single game win: at RPI 18 UCLA
- Worst single game loss: home vs. RPI 214 Northern KY
- Best series win: Home sweep vs. RPI 133 Michigan State
- Worst series loss: at RPI 84 Illinois
RPI needs:
Given the weakness in the resume, Indiana will need a better RPI rank than 2024 to get an at-large bid. To crack the RPI top-45, according to Boyd’s World, Indiana needs to go 12-1 down the stretch.
I have my own Excel model for this based on Warren Nolan’s predicted RPI values for the 39-64 ranks at the end of the regular season along with a best-case scenario of losing in the title game at the B1G Tourney (as winning the B1G Tourney includes an automatic bid and would make this all irrelevant).
- 13-0: 46th could improve to 39th in B1G Tourney
- 12-1: 50th could improve to 45th in B1G Tourney
- 11-2: 55th could improve to 47th in B1G Tourney
- 10-3: 56th could improve to 50th in B1G Tourney
- 9-4: 62nd could improve to 55th in B1G Tourney
How can the Quad-1 record change over the final stretch?
Six future games could possibly be Quad-1
- Two more games at RPI 64 Iowa (pred 64)
- One game at RPI 62 Cincinnati (pred 47)
- Three games at RPI 57 Michigan (pred 66)
RPI 1-60 is Quad-1 for a road game. Now the problem with this is that Indiana winning these games likely hurts the chances that these teams end up in the RPI top-60, except for Cincinnati who would have to do very poorly the last few weeks to not crack the top-60.
Xavier is at RPI 23 and Warren Nolan predicts they finish RPI 45. This would remove both games from Quad-1.