by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 20
Florida and Tennessee lose and are out of the SEC Tournament. Florida is now the very last team in and will be the first to be bumped in case of a stolen bid. Tennessee I still have as safely in due to their high RPI and other good metrics. The question is how punishing will the committee be to Tennessee for the 14-16 SEC mark plus early SEC Tourney exit. Last year the two teams in question (Texas A&M and Kentucky) had fates that match their SEC Tourney performance. A&M won that first game and got in, while Kentucky lost and was left out. Kentucky in 2018 had an RPI closer to Florida in 2019 so I expect Florida will be out and a stolen bid will likely do that in the next few days in this model as well. Tennessee is a different story. Last year has no precedence. I will leave my model alone and allow Tennessee to remain, but this may not match the committee on Monday.
No changes since Monday.
Right now the last at-large slot is at #48. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with three stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.
Steal Potential by Conference:
HIGH POTENTIAL STEALS (no particular order - just counting) 1. Big Ten 2. Big 12 3. Atlantic 10 4. Mountain West 5. American Athletic 6. Big East 7. Missouri Valley 8. Conference USA LOW POTENTIAL STEALS 1. SEC - most are at-large 2. Big West - no tourney - leader UC SANTA BARBARA has a magic number of 1 with 3 games to go 3. ACC - most are at-large IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL 1. Pac-12 - no tourney - all who could win are clear at-large teams
About the Model
Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.
Hosts by conference:
SEC: 6(+1), Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2(-1), Big West and American: 1 each
Lasts in/firsts out:
Last Four in: 1. FLORIDA 2. LOUISIANA TECH 3. FLORIDA STATE 4. UC IRVINE First Four out: 1. SAN DIEGO STATE 2. SOUTHERN MISS 3. OKLAHOMA 4. VIRGINIA
Field of 64:
Region: 1 Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC 3-seed: BYU of the West Coast 4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern ============================== Region: 16 Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12 2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC 3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10 4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League ============================== Region: 8 Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC 2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic 4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland ============================== Region: 9 Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West 2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12 3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC 4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East ============================== Region: 4 Host: GEORGIA of the SEC 2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC 3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA 4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC ============================== Region: 13 Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12 2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East 3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC 4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American ============================== Region: 5 Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC 2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12 3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC 4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League ============================== Region: 12 Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC 2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten 3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC 4-seed: CHARLESTON of the Colonial Athletic ============================== Region: 3 Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC 2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten 3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley 4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley ============================== Region: 14 Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC 2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12 3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt 4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic ============================== Region: 6 Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12 2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley 3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten 4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC ============================== Region: 11 Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12 2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West 3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West 4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League ============================== Region: 7 Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic 2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC 3-seed: DUKE of the ACC 4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South ============================== Region: 10 Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12 2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic 3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN 4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast ============================== Region: 2 Host: UCLA of the Pac-12 2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC 3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten 4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League ============================== Region: 15 Host: LSU of the SEC 2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC 3-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA 4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC
1. VANDERBILT 2. UCLA 3. LOUISVILLE 4. GEORGIA 5. MISSISSIPPI STATE 6. TEXAS TECH 7. EAST CAROLINA 8. ARKANSAS 9. UC SANTA BARBARA 10. OREGON STATE 11. STANFORD 12. GEORGIA TECH 13. OKLAHOMA STATE 14. TEXAS A&M 15. LSU 16. WEST VIRGINIA ====================== 17. MIAMI (FL) 18. DALLAS BAPTIST 19. NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20. CREIGHTON 21. TENNESSEE 22. ILLINOIS 23. NORTH CAROLINA 24. OLE MISS 25. INDIANA 26. ILLINOIS STATE 27. ARIZONA STATE 28. CONNECTICUT 29. CALIFORNIA 30. BAYLOR 31. AUBURN 32. FRESNO STATE ===================== 33. BYU 34. INDIANA STATE 35. NEBRASKA 36. FAU 37. TEXAS STATE 38. MISSOURI 39. HOUSTON 40. DUKE 41. CLEMSON 42. VCU 43. MICHIGAN 44. UC IRVINE 45. FLORIDA STATE 46. LIBERTY 47. LOUISIANA TECH 48. FLORIDA <===LAST IN ==================== 49. SAM HOUSTON STATE 50. CAMPBELL 51. WRIGHT STATE 52. SAMFORD 53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 54. CHARLESTON 55. HARVARD* 56. BRYANT 57. MOREHEAD STATE 58. UTRGV 59. STONY BROOK 60. MARIST 61. ARMY* 62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 63. SOUTHERN* 64. FLORIDA A&M*
*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:
MEAC: Florida A&M PATRIOT: Army IVY LEAGUE: Harvard SWAC: Southern