Field-of-64 If it Ended Today – May 22nd

by Carl James • @jovian34 • May 20

SEC Questions

Florida and Tennessee lose and are out of the SEC Tournament. Florida is now the very last team in and will be the first to be bumped in case of a stolen bid. Tennessee I still have as safely in due to their high RPI and other good metrics. The question is how punishing will the committee be to Tennessee for the 14-16 SEC mark plus early SEC Tourney exit. Last year the two teams in question (Texas A&M and Kentucky) had fates that match their SEC Tourney performance. A&M won that first game and got in, while Kentucky lost and was left out. Kentucky in 2018 had an RPI closer to Florida in 2019 so I expect Florida will be out and a stolen bid will likely do that in the next few days in this model as well. Tennessee is a different story. Last year has no precedence. I will leave my model alone and allow Tennessee to remain, but this may not match the committee on Monday.

Automatic Bids

No changes since Monday.

Stolen Bids

Right now the last at-large slot is at #48. If a team that is currently assumed to be the automatic bid for their conference losses their conference tournament title to a team not worthy of an at-large bid, both teams will possibly make the field. This will “steal” the last at-large bid. Normally we would expect the line to be drawn at #45 which would happen with three stolen bids. in 2018 their was only one stolen bid, while in 2017 there were six. The last four in are all rooting for as few stolen bids as possible.

Steal Potential by Conference:

HIGH POTENTIAL STEALS (no particular order - just counting)
1. Big Ten
2. Big 12
3. Atlantic 10
4. Mountain West
5. American Athletic
6. Big East
7. Missouri Valley
8. Conference USA

LOW POTENTIAL STEALS
1. SEC - most are at-large
2. Big West - no tourney - leader UC SANTA BARBARA has a magic number of 1 with 3 games to go
3. ACC - most are at-large

IMPOSSIBLE TO STEAL
1. Pac-12 - no tourney - all who could win are clear at-large teams

About the Model

Bracket predictions are all over the place now on just about any site that covers national Division I College baseball. This field is different. I am not “projecting” with this bracket. This is if the committee had to put the field together today. This is generated by a computer program that I wrote to rank the teams and take multiple factors like geography into account when assigning teams to regionals. This is results-based, using an approximation of techniques to try an match the priorities the NCAA committee showed in the 2018 tournament selection.

 

Hosts by conference:

SEC: 6(+1), Pac-12: 3, Big 12: 3, ACC: 2(-1), Big West and American: 1 each

 

Lasts in/firsts out:

Last Four in:
1. FLORIDA
2. LOUISIANA TECH
3. FLORIDA STATE
4. UC IRVINE


First Four out:
1. SAN DIEGO STATE
2. SOUTHERN MISS
3. OKLAHOMA
4. VIRGINIA

Field of 64:

Region: 1
Host: VANDERBILT of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA of the ACC
3-seed: BYU of the West Coast
4-seed: SAMFORD of the Southern



==============================
Region: 16
Host: WEST VIRGINIA of the Big 12
2-seed: OLE MISS of the SEC
3-seed: VCU of the Atlantic 10
4-seed: WRIGHT STATE of the Horizon League



==============================
Region: 8
Host: ARKANSAS of the SEC
2-seed: ILLINOIS STATE of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: HOUSTON of the American Athletic
4-seed: SAM HOUSTON STATE of the Southland



==============================
Region: 9
Host: UC SANTA BARBARA of the Big West
2-seed: ARIZONA STATE of the Pac-12
3-seed: FLORIDA STATE of the ACC
4-seed: STONY BROOK of the America East



==============================
Region: 4
Host: GEORGIA of the SEC
2-seed: MIAMI (FL) of the ACC
3-seed: FAU of the Conference USA
4-seed: FLORIDA A&M of the MEAC



==============================
Region: 13
Host: OKLAHOMA STATE of the Big 12
2-seed: CREIGHTON of the Big East
3-seed: MISSOURI of the SEC
4-seed: CENTRAL MICHIGAN of the Mid-American



==============================
Region: 5
Host: MISSISSIPPI STATE of the SEC
2-seed: CALIFORNIA of the Pac-12
3-seed: CLEMSON of the ACC
4-seed: ARMY of the Patriot League



==============================
Region: 12
Host: GEORGIA TECH of the ACC
2-seed: ILLINOIS of the Big Ten
3-seed: FLORIDA of the SEC
4-seed: CHARLESTON of the Colonial Athletic



==============================
Region: 3
Host: LOUISVILLE of the ACC
2-seed: INDIANA of the Big Ten
3-seed: INDIANA STATE of the Missouri Valley
4-seed: MOREHEAD STATE of the Ohio Valley



==============================
Region: 14
Host: TEXAS A&M of the SEC
2-seed: BAYLOR of the Big 12
3-seed: TEXAS STATE of the Sun Belt
4-seed: UTRGV of the Western Athletic



==============================
Region: 6
Host: TEXAS TECH of the Big 12
2-seed: DALLAS BAPTIST of the Missouri Valley
3-seed: MICHIGAN of the Big Ten
4-seed: MARIST of the MAAC



==============================
Region: 11
Host: STANFORD of the Pac-12
2-seed: FRESNO STATE of the Mountain West
3-seed: UC IRVINE of the Big West
4-seed: HARVARD of the Ivy League



==============================
Region: 7
Host: EAST CAROLINA of the American Athletic
2-seed: TENNESSEE of the SEC
3-seed: DUKE of the ACC
4-seed: CAMPBELL of the Big South



==============================
Region: 10
Host: OREGON STATE of the Pac-12
2-seed: CONNECTICUT of the American Athletic
3-seed: LIBERTY of the ASUN
4-seed: BRYANT of the Northeast



==============================
Region: 2
Host: UCLA of the Pac-12
2-seed: AUBURN of the SEC
3-seed: NEBRASKA of the Big Ten
4-seed: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE of the The Summit League



==============================
Region: 15
Host: LSU of the SEC
2-seed: NORTH CAROLINA STATE of the ACC
3-seed: LOUISIANA TECH of the Conference USA
4-seed: SOUTHERN of the SWAC

1-64 ranks:

1. VANDERBILT
2. UCLA
3. LOUISVILLE
4. GEORGIA
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE
6. TEXAS TECH
7. EAST CAROLINA
8. ARKANSAS
9. UC SANTA BARBARA
10. OREGON STATE
11. STANFORD
12. GEORGIA TECH
13. OKLAHOMA STATE
14. TEXAS A&M
15. LSU
16. WEST VIRGINIA
======================
17. MIAMI (FL)
18. DALLAS BAPTIST
19. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
20. CREIGHTON
21. TENNESSEE
22. ILLINOIS
23. NORTH CAROLINA
24. OLE MISS
25. INDIANA
26. ILLINOIS STATE
27. ARIZONA STATE
28. CONNECTICUT
29. CALIFORNIA
30. BAYLOR
31. AUBURN
32. FRESNO STATE
=====================
33. BYU
34. INDIANA STATE
35. NEBRASKA
36. FAU
37. TEXAS STATE
38. MISSOURI
39. HOUSTON
40. DUKE
41. CLEMSON
42. VCU
43. MICHIGAN
44. UC IRVINE
45. FLORIDA STATE
46. LIBERTY
47. LOUISIANA TECH
48. FLORIDA <===LAST IN
====================
49. SAM HOUSTON STATE
50. CAMPBELL
51. WRIGHT STATE
52. SAMFORD
53. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
54. CHARLESTON
55. HARVARD*
56. BRYANT
57. MOREHEAD STATE
58. UTRGV
59. STONY BROOK
60. MARIST
61. ARMY*
62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
63. SOUTHERN*
64. FLORIDA A&M*

*Automatic Bids Earned to Date:

MEAC: Florida A&M
PATRIOT: Army
IVY LEAGUE: Harvard
SWAC: Southern
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