At 77th in the RPI, Indiana is currently on the outside looking in on an at-large bid the to the NCAA Tournament
By Carl James @jovian34 April 22nd, 2024
The Indiana Hoosiers have produced an unusual NCAA resume up to this point. The Hoosiers are at a very disappointing 22-18 record overall. If you had asked me what I thought the RPI would be with that record I would have guessed a triple digit rank. 77th is still not good, don’t get wrong. However, that rank and the Boyd’s World Needs Report show that a realistic path to an RPI range where Indiana’s resume is on the NCAA Committee’s table Memorial Day weekend does exist.
This is due to the fact that Indiana’s schedule has been strong. Collectively, Indiana opponents are playing much better than they did a year ago. This extends to future opponents as well who have a crazy good combined .580 winning percentage.
Now, is just getting in-range good enough?
I say yes, it is. Look at the details in the resume. Indiana is currently 5-6 vs QUAD-1 opponents. The Hoosiers are 8-5 in true road contests. They have wins over no. 10, 13, and 17 in the RPI, one of those was a true road win. There is also a top-40 non-conference strength of schedule. If the path I am about to lay out comes to fruition (and yes – that is a BIG IF), this resume would look even better by selection time. Very few “bubble” teams will be able to boast such metrics.
The obvious retort would be, what about all of the bad losses? Indiana is a combined 17-12 against Quads 3 & 4. That is the reason the RPI currently sits at 77th. If selection were happening today, the Hoosiers resume would not even be printed, much less examined. However, if the Hoosiers go on a tear and get the RPI into the top-50, suddenly the resume gets on the table. What is the NCAA committee looking for? They are looking for teams that would do well against the types of competition they will see in an NCAA Regional. They are looking for how a team does in Quad-1 and for a bubble team, how they play on the road. Indiana has already proven they can beat good teams on the road. The committee doesn’t care much if they lose some to bad teams, provided the RPI is in range.
What is the path?
According to Boyd’s World Needs Report, Indiana needs to go 12-3 in the remaining contests. I’m not going to say, given what we’ve seen, that a run like that is likely, but I’m not going to say it is out of the question, either.
Let’s break down what Indiana Baseball would have to do:
- Win all three midweek contests (Ball State, Cincinnati, Louisville)
- Sweep Rutgers this coming weekend
- Take 2 of 3 against Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan
None of these are easy orders. The Hoosiers are 4-5 in midweeks so far. Indiana hasn’t swept anybody in conference yet, but Rutgers is reeling at the moment and Indiana may be getting the Scarlet Knights at the right time. Two of the remaining series are on the road. They won’t be easy, but Indiana has the talent to win those series.
Any deviation from 12-3 would likely require some positive action in the B1G Tournament. Even going 12-3 would likely still require 1 win in Omaha. Going 3-1 or 3-2 in the conference tournament could make up for a one, maybe two, game slip up. down the stretch. Of course, winning the conference tournament would make this a moot point as that comes with an automatic bid.
I like Indiana’s chances in Omaha. Their biggest problem pitching wise is giving up home runs. Home runs are tougher to come by at Charles Schwab field, and Indiana’s offense does not rely on the long ball the way many other B1G teams do.
We’ve been told that Connor Foley should be good to go against Rutgers, If Foley gets slotted into Friday, that gives Indiana a Foley-Bothwell-Rybarczyk weekend rotation with Phillips starting midweeks, and Buhr, Vogel, Kraft, and Risedorph all pitching well recently out of the bullpen. The pitching is starting to come together and the duo of Jake Stadler and Joey Brenczewski have done well in the absence of Brock Tibbitts. Tibbitts should return in the next couple of weeks to add a right-handed bat to slot in as well.
In the end, this team is crazy talented, but has been very inconsistent in execution. A run like this is totally within their capabilities, but they would need to execute with a consistency they only showed in the opening 7 games of the season. It also would likely take a little luck. Pairing up a poor pitching performance with one of those offensive outburst games and winning a 15-13 game.