B1G Win Probability Tracker

by Cassady Palmer • @crpalmer0627 • Updated 5.1.19

 Model’s Record:
 11-4

 Current Projected Record:
 15-9

 Best Possible Projected Record (all games in the 45-50% range are wins):
 15-9

 Worst Possible Projected Record (all games in the 50-55% range are losses):
 14-10


Update though Minnesota series:

The model correctly predicted 2 out of 3 games, once again incorrectly predicting the Hoosiers to beat an opponent’s ace pitcher. It has now gotten 11 out of 15 games correct on the season.

The model does not predict a sweep this week. Unfortunately, it has the Illini taking the first two games of the series. And also somewhat unfortunately, the Hoosiers best chance to steal one from Illinois is on Friday, as the Illini have won more than 75% of their second games in weekend series over the past almost two seasons. The Hoosiers, in comparison, have won 60% of their second games in that same time span and have struggled on Fridays all season, only winning two such games in Big Ten play. On the other hand, Indiana has won around 75% of their series finales dating back to the start of last season.

There were no significant changes to the predictions for the rest of the season.

 

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