B1G Win Probability Tracker

by Cassady Palmer • @crpalmer0627 • Updated 4.24.19

 Model’s Record:
 9-3

 Current Projected Record:
 16-8

 Best Possible Projected Record (all games in the 45-50% range are wins):
 16-8

 Worst Possible Projected Record (all games in the 50-55% range are losses):
 15-9


Update though Michigan St. series:

The model correctly predicted 2 out of 3 games, not anticipating the Spartans picking up their first win in Big Ten play. It has now gotten 9 out of 12 games correct on the season.

The model once again predicts a sweep this weekend, with the Hoosiers taking all three at home against Minnesota. This differs from the initial predictions, where Indiana took game one, the Gophers took game two, and game three was a coin flip.

This sweep is driven largely by the location; the Hoosiers have an .822 win percentage at the Bart over the last 1+ seasons while the Gophers are just .553 away from home over the same time.

There were no significant changes to the predictions for the rest of the season.

 

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